CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Tue 03 Jan 06:00 - Wed 04 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 02 Jan 22:19 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

Thunderstorms are forecast across Mediterranean

SYNOPSIS

Broad cut-off low is present over central Mediterranean. In the range of this low ... well-mixed low-level airmass has formed over relatively warm sea surface. Showers and thunderstorms should go on underneath the cut-off low during the period. Vertical wind shear should be weak ... and given steep low-level lapse rates and weak CIN ... chance for waterspouts should be enhanced. To the east ... DLS is increasing in the range of the upper jet at the periphery of the cut-off. Low-level instability is quite weak due to dry boundary-layer ... and showers and thunderstorms should be weak. Due to inhomogenity of boundary-layer moisture ... a few thunderstorms are not ruled out ... and chance for a few organized storms is enhanced ... with severe wind gusts that most significant threat. Further east ... warm airmass advects northward at the eastern flank of the cut-off low. Strong inversion above the boundary-layer should inhibit deep convection. Strong vertical wind shear is present ... and if showers will form ... chance for isolated severe events is enhanced. Initiation is not expected ATTM.

DISCUSSION

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